New Formation, Similar Result: Austin FC Lose 2-1 to FC Cincinnati
A new shape didn’t prove successful in Verde’s third-straight MLS defeat.
You could make a joke about rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but at least Nico Estevez is trying.
For the second time in two matches, Austin FC started a game in a formation other than the 4-3-3 used since the 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Galaxy on April 19th. And the 4-3-3 was a deviation from the 4-4-2 that Verde began the season favoring. Aside from a brief seven-minute, three-goal barrage against a side from the USL Championship on Wednesday when Verde was playing in a 4-2-3-1 shape, Austin FC goals have been scarce in 2025. Estevez is continuing to tinker to do something about it.
On Saturday night at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Austin FC deployed a back five formation - to this point, only something we’ve seen late in matches - but still struggled to create (and prevent) chances in a 2-1 defeat to FC Cincinnati. While adding an extra defender might sound like an inherently conservative ploy, the 5-3-2 shape Austin FC utilized on Saturday contained elements (in theory, anyway) that could have helped the team in attack.
The shape put forwards Brandon Vazquez and Myrto Uzuni closer together. It also allowed outside backs and dangerous crossers Jon Gallagher and Zan Kolmanic more license to get forward with three center backs behind them instead of just two. But Vazquez's conversion of a penalty aside, the game was yet another Verde contest defined by a lack of influence from the team’s Designated Players (DPs).
Osman Bukari didn’t start and was an ineffectual 81st-minute substitute. And if you can recall a single thing of note that Myrto Uzuni did on the ball against Cincinnati, then you’re a more astute observer of Austin FC than the author of Oak Tree Times. The Albanian had zero shots and offered precious little service to his teammates - Uzuni produced the tiniest expected assists (xA) number possible aside from zero: .01 (all stats per FBRef.com or FotMob.com unless otherwise noted). He also had just one touch in Cincinnati’s penalty area.
As satisfying as it was to see Vazquez confidently dispatch a penalty against his former team in front of a raucous crowd, he continued his season-long trend of missing chances. He failed to find the back of the net in open play despite registering .94 expected goals (xG). The most egregious miss came in the 17th minute when he failed to finish a delightful Gallagher cross worth .56 xG.
Quick aside: Gallagher was a one-player advertisement for Estevez’s switch to a back five. Playing as a right-wingback, Gallagher’s five completed crosses were the most completed crosses by anyone in the match. And a whopping 70% of Austin FC’s completed passes in the final third came down his right flank.
The Irishman got forward and made good use of the extra defender offering coverage behind him, and was Austin FC’s most consistent source of chance creation on the night - it was Gallagher’s cross that deflected off the arm of Cincinnati substitute Teenage Hadebe to earn the Verde and Black its penalty.
Now, back to Vazquez: typically you’d bet on a forward’s actual goals leveling out with their expected goals over time. There are examples of forwards missing boatloads of chances and never quite figuring things out (see: Nunez, Darwin, who appears to be on his way out at Liverpool despite being an xG monster), but those are exceptions and not the norm. In Vazquez’s case, the sheer rate at which he’s missing chances is at least somewhat unnerving. Before Saturday, only one forward in MLS - the Philadelphia Union’s Bruno Damiani - was underperforming his xG more per 90 than Vazquez in 2025.
Vazquez has a history of hot and cold spells in front of the net. During his breakout 2022 season with FC Cincinnati, he scored 18 goals on 14.9 xG. The following season, he netted eight goals on 11.2 xG. His two campaigns in Liga MX with Monterrey tell a similar story, albeit with a smaller sample size, as he wasn’t a regular starter. Across the 2023-24 season, Vazquez scored six goals on 2.9 xG. In 2024-25, he bagged three goals on 4.9 xG.
Patience could be all that’s required to get Vazquez scoring with regularity. But the team’s inability to consistently create scoring chances is a concern. Per FotMob.com's admittedly arbitrary big chances created metric, Austin FC ranks 18th in MLS in big chances in 2025. If Vazquez is low on confidence and is getting only one or two good looks at goal per match, it might take a while for the fog of frustration to lift.
With their team’s DPs floundering, Austin FC fans must have looked at Cincinnati DP number 10, Evander’s, performance with envy on Saturday. A goal and an assist with a wand of a right foot capable of making scoring chances appear out of thin air, the Brazilian showed Austin FC supporters the platonic ideal of a DP display.
The extra defender also didn’t help a Verde defense that’s become increasingly leaky - Austin FC has allowed at least two goals in four consecutive contests. Here is Evander right before he banged in Cincinnati’s first goal of the night.
And here is Evander seconds before pinging the assist for Gerardo Valenzuela to make it 2-1 to the home side in the 76th minute.
Note the luxurious amount of space the Brazilian has to work his magic. It’s possible the switch to a back five that Austin FC has scarcely played this season caused a mix-up in marking assignments, and Evander is the last person on Cincinnati you want to leave open. That's the worry for Estevez. As Austin FC's head coach makes changes to try and ignite the team’s forwards, Verde's previously dominant defense could inadvertently suffer.
Hopefully Austin FC can turn the ship before hitting the iceberg, unlike the Titanic.
What a worthless performance by the forwards!! The writer does a great job in showing that it isn't one aspect of the team's play that is the problem, though. It appears to be many, including coaching.