Minnesota Not-So-Nice: Austin FC Fall 3-0 to Minnesota United

Three talking points from a worrying Verde defeat.

It’s barely believable.

Minnesota United has avoided the ball like someone who fears public speaking avoids a podium. Entering Saturday night’s match at Q2 Stadium against Austin FC, the Loons had averaged 37.9% possession - nearly five percent less than St. Louis City, the next most possession-averse team in MLS (all stats per FBRef.com or FotMob.com unless otherwise noted).

And yet, Minnesota began the night fourth in the Western Conference, level on points with Austin FC. Who needs a bunch of fancy passes when you can hoof it directly to your forwards?

Notably, the less of the ball Austin FC has had in 2025, the more successful it has been. Before Saturday, Verde averaged 39.6% possession in its five wins. In its four defeats, Austin FC has had 50.8% possession. The only time Austin FC scored more than a solitary goal in a match this season, it had its lowest possession total: a minuscule 24% of the ball in a 2-1 win over San Diego FC.

With that in mind, should it come as any surprise that Austin FC huffed and puffed with 66% possession against a deep, compact Minnesota defense and failed to find the back of the net in a 3-0 defeat? Austin FC can find some solace in the fact that it generated the better chances Saturday night - Verde produced 1.24 expected goals (xG) to Minnesota’s .53 - and there was an element of ill fortune to two of the Loon’s three goals from an Austin perspective.

Officially credited as an Ilie Sanchez own goal, Minnesota United midfielder Joaquin Pereyra’s tame shot (actually, probably an attempted cross that nicked off the Austin FC midfielder) somehow led to a Bill Buckner impression from Brad Stuver and provided the game’s opening goal. Stuver has been a shot-stopping robot since Austin FC’s inception, so any upset fans temper their frustration.

Minnesota’s third goal in the first minute of second-half stoppage time came courtesy of an outside-of-the-box wonder strike from Pereyra. This effort was certainly not a cross and is the sort of goal that should prompt admiration from the team that conceded it, not self-reflection.

The second Loons’ goal should illicit some concern, however. After failing to clear a long free kick from Minnesota goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair, Austin FC center-back Oleksandr Svatok lost a crucial aerial battle with Minnesota wingback Anthony Markanich, who headed in a Jefferson Diaz cross. While Austin FC’s attack continues to struggle, there isn’t much margin for defensive error. It’s unlikely Stuver will have another howler like the one he had tonight for a while, but Svatok and the rest of Austin FC’s defenders will have to ensure their previously impeccable form doesn’t lapse.

Here are three talking points from Austin FC’s 3-0 defeat.

Austin FC’s DPs Continue to Underwhelm

By the time the match concluded, Austin FC had five forwards on the field in a desperation 3-2-5 shape. Despite valiant efforts, Jader Obrian, Diego Rubio, Brandon Vazquez, CJ Fodrey, and new-signing Robert Taylor failed to crack the code of Minnesota’s vault-like defense. Absent from the gang of attackers futilely raging against a stern Loons’ machine were two of Austin FC’s three designated players: Myrto Uzuni and Osman Bukari.

Verde’s three DP attackers have combined for four goals in 11 matches. When asked post-match about the trio’s tribulations Austin FC head coach Nico Estevez was defiant: “I’m with them. I’m supporting them and trying to help them get out of that situation.”

Estevez continued: “They are men that are really responsible, and they care about the club, care about the fans, care about everyone here…me as a coach, I have to support them, help them, and try and turn that narrative that is now against them.”

Austin FC’s pass map from the contest shows a disconcerting disconnection between the team’s three forwards. The trio were not getting on the ball anywhere near each other (also, note the positioning of Vazquez: it’s difficult to score when you’re receiving the ball on the halfway line all match).

Image via @mlsstat.bsky.social

As Estevez referenced, a less-than-kind narrative is beginning to take shape around Austin FC’s three DPs: the expensive pieces don’t fit together. Vazquez and Uzuni are both center forwards but haven’t shown an ability to play together in a front two, while Uzuni looks uncomfortable shifted out wide in a front three. Meanwhile, Bukari hasn’t looked capable of scoring himself, nor has he been able to provide adequate service to his DP counterparts. That’s the narrative, and it’s up to Vazquez, Uzuni, and Bukari to change it.

Pressing Issues

If Austin FC’s possession play in the attacking half of the field continues to fall flat, initiating a more aggressive counter-press (counter-pressing is where a team tries to win the ball back immediately after losing it) could help the team's chance creation problems - if you can’t score against a settled defense, try attacking an unsettled one.

Heading into the Minnesota match, Austin FC had only completed 16 successful tackles in the attacking third of the field, the 25th-fewest in the league. For comparison, the Loons had completed 33 successful tackles in the attacking third, second most in MLS. Like Austin, Minnesota has often lacked ideas and identity in possession (it’s at least partly why the Loons have elected to eschew it altogether) but has made up for it by winning the ball high up the field in good positions and striking quickly.

Before Saturday, Austin FC was one of MLS's least aggressive pressing teams. Per the excellent work of Paul Harvey of American Soccer Analysis, Austin FC allowed its opponents an average of 10.34 passes per defensive action (PPDA). Only the Los Angeles Galaxy allowed its opponents to complete more passes before intervening. If Austin FC does plan to ramp up its counter-pressing, it will want to have its attackers closer together while in possession than what we saw on Saturday. A team attempting to counter-press with too much space between its attackers is perilously easy to play through.

Is Austin FC’s Defense Starting to Crack?

“At least the defense is good,” dead-eyed Austin FC fans muttered to themselves through the 2025 season’s first seven matches while the team’s attack labored to just five goals scored. Eleven games in, and those same fans are now asking: “Wait, is the defense good?”

In its last four contests, Austin FC has allowed 10 goals. Obviously, that’s bad. But the underlying numbers paint a picture that’s not quite so bleak. Only against the unstoppable Vancouver Whitecaps did Austin FC allow more than one xG worth of chances. Estevez’s defense is still broadly succeeding at preventing the opposition from registering good scoring opportunities.

However, when your attack is as poor as Austin FC’s, you leave yourself open to losing matches because of a highly advanced concept this family-friendly newsletter likes to call: stuff happens. If you’re not scoring goals, it’s hard to overcome anomalies like your brick wall of a goalkeeper having an off night or the opposition knocking in a banger from beyond the 18-yard box. Austin FC’s defensive record of late looks rough on the scoresheet, but the majority of concern should still be focused on the team’s failing forwards.